This piece of research is the fifth in a series of chronic conditions prevalence forecasting reports which IPH has produced. Previous studies on hypertension, coronary heart disease, stroke and diabetes were launched in 2010.The research series is based on statistical models of disease prevalence developed in the UK by the Association of Public Observatories (APHO). 

Findings from the research include: 

– Chronic airflow obstruction is more common among males than females. In 2007, the prevalence rate among males was nearly 50% higher than among females.  

– The prevalence of chronic airflow obstruction increases with age. In 2007 about one in twelve adults aged 75 years and over were living with the condition. In 2020 relatively more of the adults living with the condition will belong in the older age groups. 

– In 2007 chronic airflow obstruction tended to be most common in Belfast and its surrounds and in some parts of Dublin. – In 2007 chronic airflow obstruction prevalence was generally higher in the most deprived areas. 

– In 2007 chronic airflow obstruction prevalence was higher in Northern Ireland than in the Republic of Ireland. North-South differences in the current and future prevalence are chiefly due to differences in current and (projected) future demographic and socio-economic profiles and smoking rates.