15 Mar 2010

Chronic conditions such as hypertension, coronary heart disease, stroke and diabetes are expected to increase dramatically – according to a new study carried out by the Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH).

The IPH study Making Chronic Conditions Count describes the prevalence of these conditions in 2007 and estimated levels for 2015 and 2020 across the island of Ireland. It forecasts a 40% increase in the number of people living with these conditions in the Republic of Ireland by 2020.

Department of Health and Children Chief Medical Officer Dr. Tony Holohan said: “This work clearly highlights the importance of a focus on public health in future public policy. It will make a vital contribution to the intersectoral work that is such an important part of improving the prevention and management of chronic diseases.”

The IPH Associate Director who led the work, Prof Kevin Balanda said “the dramatic rise in chronic disease levels will result in a huge increase in demand for our already strained health and social care services, and a very significant additional financial burden to our economy through lost productivity.  Unless we can address this increase in people living with these conditions we could be adding years of illness and disability to our lives.”

The key findings for the Republic of Ireland are:

•    High blood pressure: In 2007 nearly 852,000 adults (25.1%) had high blood pressure. By 2020 this is expected to rise to over 1,192,000 people - an additional 341,000 adults (a 40% increase in less than 15 years).

•    Coronary Heart Disease (CHD): In 2007 nearly 131,000 adults (3.8%) had ever had a Coronary Heart Disease (CHD, angina and heart attack). By 2020 this is expected to rise to over 195,000 people - an additional 65,000 people (a 50% increase in less than 15 years).

•    Stroke: In 2007 almost 59,000 adults (1.7%) have ever had a stroke. By 2020 this is expected to rise to almost 87,000 people – an additional 28,000 adults (an increase of 48% in less than 15 years).

•    Diabetes (Type 1 and Type 2 combined): In 2007 nearly 144,000 adults (4.5%) have diabetes (Type 1 and Type 2 combined). By 2020 this is expected to rise to over 233,000 an additional 89,000 adults – (a 62% increase in less than 15 years).

Prevalence of Diseases linked to Socio-economic Status

Poverty, unemployment, the environment, smoking, alcohol consumption, diet and physical activity are risk factors for chronic disease and these are distributed unevenly across society. The IPH study found that local socio-economic circumstances strongly affect the prevalence of chronic conditions in an area. For all the chronic conditions considered in the study, people living in more deprived areas are more likely to be affected.

These findings are consistent with earlier IPH work which showed people from poorer socio-economic backgrounds were more likely to have poorer health, to be less satisfied with their health, and to have a poorer quality of life.

“The findings also help us understand why people from lower socio-economic groups die earlier from every major cause of death - it's the result of people’s lifetime experience and highly related to social and economic conditions” stated Prof Balanda.

The study also found that the prevalence of chronic conditions is higher in northern and western parts of the island and lower around Dublin. Prevalence is also higher among males.

IPH Chief Executive, Dr. Jane Wilde said “We know that 80% of heart disease, stroke and Type 2 diabetes could be avoided if major risk factors were eliminated. Chronic diseases cause early death, immense suffering and reduce quality of life. Understanding current need and future prevalence and how it varies with factors such as age, sex, geography and local socio-economic circumstances, is essential for good planning and monitoring of chronic disease management.”

“We already have government policies and strategies to promote healthier lifestyles and strengthen the early assessment and diagnosis of chronic conditions. These are welcome but all the evidence suggests that we need a much broader focus. We need to think about interventions right across the life course, to focus particularly on early childhood and the needs of vulnerable and disadvantaged people.“ Dr Wilde concluded.

Further Information

Ronan Cavanagh, Montague Communications: (01) 830 3116 or (086) 317 9731.
Arlene McKay, IPH: (048) 9069 0058 or (0044) 773 490 3944.

•    The Executive Summary, Full Report and Technical Report are available for download at: www.publichealth.ie.
•    The full technical data is available at www.inispho.ie
 
The Institute of Public Health in Ireland
The Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) promotes cooperation for public health across the island of Ireland. It aims to improve health by working to combat health inequalities and influence public policy in favour of health. Further information can be found at www.publichealth.ie.

Note to Editors:

Making Diabetes Count
In 2007 IPH published a previous prevalence forecasting report on Diabetes called Making diabetes count. What does the future hold? It included a systematic approach to forecasting population prevalence on the island of Ireland in 2010 and 2015.

Inequalities in Mortality
In 2001 IPH published Inequalities in Mortality 1989-1998. This was the first all Ireland mortality report for 80 years and provides information on patterns of mortality by age, gender, geography and socio-economic class.